{"id":118,"date":"2008-09-11T12:11:57","date_gmt":"2008-09-11T10:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/2008\/09\/11\/workshop_blogging_v_convergence\/"},"modified":"2008-09-11T12:11:57","modified_gmt":"2008-09-11T10:11:57","slug":"workshop_blogging_v_convergence","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/2008\/09\/11\/workshop_blogging_v_convergence\/","title":{"rendered":"Workshop Blogging V: Convergence"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(<a href=\"http:\/\/network.nature.com\/blogs\/user\/boboh\/2008\/09\/08\/workshop-blogging-i-getting-started\">Part 1<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/network.nature.com\/blogs\/user\/boboh\/2008\/09\/09\/workshop-blogging-ii-doing-real-work\">Part II<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/network.nature.com\/blogs\/user\/boboh\/2008\/09\/09\/workshop-blogging-iii-largely-listening\">Part III<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/network.nature.com\/blogs\/user\/boboh\/2008\/09\/10\/workshop-blogging-iv-finally-playing-with-data\">Part IV<\/a>)<br \/>\nIf I could work out how to get the photo I took last night off my phone, you could all see the monster nan we ate last night before the football.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><br \/>\nMost of the rest of yesterday and today has been spent trying to get things working.  I&#8217;ve been building habitat models that can be used to estimate where butterflies are living.  These will (in one way or another) be part of a bigger model, which incorporates the observation process, i.e. we will separate out true absences (i.e. when a butterfly isn&#8217;t there) from when it just isn&#8217;t seen.<br \/>\nYesterday I got a model working based on observations of presences of the species.  This wasn&#8217;t too bad, until I tried adding a spatial component.  At that point the computer gave up and just stared at me.  I&#8217;ll try Plan B (a CAR model) next week.<br \/>\nThis morning I have been developing a similar model for abundance data.  The model sort-of works (i.e. fitting it to the data produces numbers), but the numbers are rubbish.  Basically, I am simulating the parameters (using MCMC, for those who know), and getting different answers depending on where I start it from.  I know the problem (a lot of random effects), but have never understood the different possible solutions well enough to see what to do.  This is a bit embarrassing, as people seem to think I know what I&#8217;m doing with this stuff.<br \/>\nHo hum.  This part of the workshop finishes this evening, so I can write a promissory note to say I&#8217;ll sort it out later.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Part 1, Part II, Part III, Part IV) If I could work out how to get the photo I took last night off my phone, you could all see the monster nan we ate last night before the football.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occamstypewriter.org\/boboh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}