It seems to be a truth universally acknowledged amongst scientists that there is a shortage of students coming up in the system to replace them. This sentiment is echoed by science communicators, fueled by trade and industry bodies and, via their press releases, disseminated by the media, spurring on schemes to attract more young people into PhD programs. In nearly every letter-to-the-editor section I read in magazines such as Science, Nature and The Scientist, there is usually at least one from a panicked researcher stressing the urgent need to attract more students into science to redress ‘the shortage’ in the STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) fields. And this concern came up again at the recent SciBlog conference, as Richard Grant noted in his recent excellent summary.
In the vast majority of disciplines and geographic localizations, however, it’s simply not true. And most scientists I speak to don’t ever seem to question the assumption.
Earlier this year I was asked by the Wellcome Trust to be the official rapporteur for an international science education conference they co-hosted with the US National Science Foundation, attended by the best and brightest in science education and policy from 30 countries around the world. (My final report is freely available here, from which I paraphrase and quote below.) And the puzzling, incredibly sticky ‘we’re running out of future scientists’ meme was one of the main issues that the delegates hoped to debunk.
Demographer Michael S. Teitelbaum, Vice President of the Sloan Foundation, has done years of careful research on this topic, with actual numbers and statistics instead of vague fears and feelings. And his work, which was presented at the conference, clearly shows that in most cases we don’t actually need more scientists. In fact, with only a few exceptions (such as subspecialties like engineering, or in particular countries, such as Korea), we are producing far more, in every discipline, than the system can absorb. The specialist delegates at the conference overwhelmingly agreed with Teitelbaum’s assessment, from their own experience at the coal face. (Teitelbaum’s arguments and hard data are elegantly summarized in his recent testimony before the Subcommittee on Technology and Innovation Committee on Science and Technology of the US House of Representatives this past November.)
Teitelbaum has been broadcasting this warning over the past six years, but clearly the message is not penetrating. For example, as recently as March 2007, a report from the Confederation of British Industry called for a doubling of science and engineering graduates over seven years to prevent skilled jobs from going overseas, and similar proclamations have been made in the USA, Europe and elsewhere. But Teitelbaum’s research shows that surplus is the reality now and, although forecasts can never be certain, there is scant evidence of a future shortfall either. Meanwhile a generation of PhDs face a “nasty hard landing”. Any of you who has recently applied for a position and found yourself jostling with several hundred other candidates will have viscerally experienced this glut first-hand.
Teitelbaum is not in any way suggesting that science education is not important – but it is “an annoying fact”, he said, that scientists and engineers make up less than 5 per cent of the global workforce. So from an economic perspective, we need to ensure that all STEM graduates and PhDs can make a meaningful contribution even if it is not to do research. This is not necessarily difficult: he called science knowledge “as essential as literacy was to the 20th century” for the general skilled workforce today, and showed evidence that STEM graduates doing non-STEM jobs still earned more money than their non-STEM counterparts. So whereas channeling education solely to create even more of a surplus of specialists would be inappropriate, good science education for all children will lead to an increase in national productivity, wellbeing and informed citizenry.
I think all scientists who feel that their field is threatened by shortfalls should arm themselves with the facts pertinent to their own geographic region and discipline before being swept away in the mob. There may well be areas (certain subsets of the hard sciences perhaps) that could grow thin in future and need to be watched more carefully, but at the same time, I believe it is immoral and cruel to encourage young people to enter a field where in the end, no job awaits.