No escape from the geeky scientist phenotype–or is that stereotype?

Posted on January 19, 2017 by Steve Caplan

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Professor John Nerdelbaum Frink, Jr., scientist from “The Simpsons.” A familiar stereotype.

For years I’ve been trying to combat the misconception that all scientists are, generally speaking, a geekish bunch who have little or no interest in anything but their own miniscule scientific worlds. Such a perception has been trumpeted in films, the media, and books, and has been challenged to some extent by those of us who try to portray scientists as ordinary people—albeit in extraordinary careers (author’s view!).

For this reason, I became incensed several days ago as I listened to music on “Spotify” during my morning exercise routine. An advertisement for the Exxon oil company popped up. As an aside, do they really need to advertise? For what? So people will pull into their gas stations and purchase their gasoline? Hard to imagine. To drum up public support for Trump’s Secretary of State nominee and former Exxon CEO, Rex Tillerson? Who knows… What really irritated me was the stereotypical depiction of scientists—not brave seekers of truth and explorers of new worlds—but as geeks.

The advertisement starts with the announcer noting that “This is the sound of seven Exxon scientists hard at work.” There is, of course, no sound. The scientists must be focused exclusively on their impossible-to-understand-for-normal-folks work, and patronized as those idiots that none of us would want to be, but necessary fools to keep things moving. The announcer goes on to say “They sure know how to party,” further distancing the listening public from those introverted fools, until one of the scientists utters an irritated “Shhhhh” in the background.

Some might conclude that this is a flattering depiction of brilliant scientists hard at work for the good of–well–for the good of an oil company. I do not. Such depictions neither portray scientists accurately, nor in a positive light. They do not foment empathy with scientists and science, and only serve to further distance the general public from science. It’s time for scientists to take a stand and reject such stereotypes. Otherwise how can we convince the general public of the importance of scientific progress, not to mention the integrity and understanding that science is the frontier of truth–with a characterization of bumbling, doddering introverted fools?

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The Autopsy, and what next?

Posted on December 26, 2016 by Steve Caplan

I began this blog on Nov. 13, less than a week after the elections. It was too painful for me to continue. Not that there are many bright spots on the horizon that have appeared over the last 6 weeks, but the time has come for me to put this blog to rest and move on. So here it is, no less painful, but blunted slightly by mankind’s ability to adapt to new and stressful situations, time and time again…

The polls were wrong. The statistical aggregators were wrong. The pundits were wrong. The Democratic party was wrong. And the Republican party was wrong. And I was wrong. And while I won’t be eating any bugs, I am tremendously worried about the future of this country, the free world, and the planet.

What happened? There is no simple answer. And every one of the ~120,000,000 voters probably had a slightly different reason for casting her/his vote. One thing is clear, though; a large number of those who cast votes, did so with emphasis on outcomes that differ from what most analysts thought.

Some comments on the situation: The Irony: Early on in this election, it is clear that the Democrats realized that this election should first and foremost be a referendum on the character and temperament of Trump. It isn’t hard to understand why, or to fault this strategy. As noted by Clinton and the Democrats, does the country want a man who can be baited by a tweet? Whose anger at criticism boils over until he vents his frustration at common citizens in the middle of the night? Who cannot control his temper, frustration and anger during debates? The democrats, seemingly wisely, made this a key element of the campaign for Clinton for president. This left little time to really contrast policy.

And now, Americans are realizing that into the Oval office will go a Republican ticket that wants to turn back the clock on a woman’s control over her reproductive rights, that wants to annul gay marriage and (at least the Vice Presidential candidate) apparently supports “conversion therapy” for gays. Ironically, such ‘policies’ are largely considered to be anachronistic in American society, and surveys show that the vast majority of Americans are reject these attempts to infringe on the rights of minorities, women and LGBT community members. This irony can be extended for the environment–the new administration has put a climate change denier in control of the transition team of the American Environmental Protection Agency (*note: this has gotten far worse since Nov. 13), and I suspect that when millennials and many who were apathetic during the election realize the extent to which the Trump administration will ignore environmental concerns. *Additional irony since Nov. 13: Trump’s self-declared “landslide victory” includes a loss of the popular vote by nearly 3 million voters. Of course, he maintains through his post-truth ignorance of data, that this defeat in the popular vote stems from the “millions of illegal immigrants who illegally voted against him.” An ego such as his has no clause for losing.

Why did Hilary Clinton really lose the election? Was it the famous server in her basement? The perception by the working person that democrats took them for granted?  The growing loss of faith in institutions?  Was it FBI chief Comey’s two interventions? The Russian hackers? The tremendous smear campaign waged by the Republicans? The accumulation of “Fake News” and elevation of its significance to that of “Real News?” The desire for something different? Even as different as Trump, with 67% of the American public of the opinion that he does not have the skills, abilities and temperament required to be president? Or–is it all–“The economy, stupid!” *As an aside, significant numbers of people who voted for Trump are now very concerned about losing their healthcare insurance through “ObamaCare.” Some of these people, when interviewed, even said that they didn’t take Trump literally when he said he would repeal the act. Guess what?

I remain optimistic. I hope that these next four years will be better than I predict–despite tremendous misgivings regarding the president-elect–and I will not forgive any of the bigot-racist statements (in particular the birtherism and stirring of hatred towards President Obama) or “Locker room talk” and sexist behavior–but I still hope for the success of the government and country. After all, I live here. My goal is not to say “I told you so” in a few years (or months)–but rather–if at all possible: well, we are still moving forward.

At the same time, demography, the popular vote, a perceived weak democratic candidate,  a desire for change after 8 years and attention by the working classes all combined, in my humble opinion, to make this an exceptional and unusual election–with an unexpected outcome. Social issues, science, technology and equality for all people cannot be erased and the clock cannot be turned back. Let’s hope that the president-elect realizes that the clock needs winding.

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Final Comments before (Armageddon?) Nov. 8, 2016

Posted on November 6, 2016 by Steve Caplan

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My early vote cast weeks ago; couldn’t rest until the ballot was submitted…

On Tuesday Nov. 8, the United States will have one of its most crucial elections in the history of the nation. Yes, I realize that many will say that just as many people felt that way when Democrat Obama faced off against Republican McCain in 2008 or when the former competed against Republican Romney in 2012. Or when Republican George W. Bush defeated Gore by the narrowest of margins in the electoral vote in 2000. But the overall indecency, mendacious behavior, boorishness, misogyny, racism and complete lack of moral character of Donald Trump make this election cycle an entirely different beast. So much so, that in retrospect, regardless of very different policy positions, all of the former Republican and Democrat presidential candidates, Obama, Romney, McCain, Kerry, Bush and Gore, seem like the same thing when compared with such a horrific outlier as Trump. NONE of these presidential nominees and presidents, by the way, will support Trump on election day. Neither from the Democrat side nor from the Republican side.

Statistics and Bug-Eyed Recipes

To start with science—or at least statistics—going towards Tuesday there are very different outlooks among the pundits and pollsters. I have been clicking with a high level of obsessive-compulsive disorder every few hours, looking for trends and changes. My clicking usually starts with the New York Times (NYT) Upshot, which provides a percentage-based prediction for the likelihood of an electoral vote victory. This is regardless of the number of electoral votes (EV)—it provides the percentage of likelihood that, say, Clinton will obtain over 269 EV, which is enough (270) to win the election.

Right now, Clinton stands at 84% likelihood. This is based primarily on state polling data (and some national data, I believe) and there is a calculation of the relevance of each poll (its overall technique and quality, the number of people surveyed, how recent it was, etc.). Accordingly, based on these polls, a % prediction for the individual state is made. Once all 50 states have their specific prediction values, the election is simulated millions of times, and the likelihood of all possible outcomes is calculated. Thus, a histogram plot is obtained, and if Clinton wins more than 269 EV 84% of the time (and that could be 270 to 538), her election chances are given at 84%.

The NYT Upshot is in the middle of the pack, with Nate Silver’s 538 website currently the most conservative of the statisticians at 64%, whereas Prof. Sam Wang (a neuroscientist) at the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) has calmly maintained that “the cake is baked” and lists a >99% likelihood for a Clinton win. In fact, he is so confident that he has tweeted that he will eat a bug if Trump wins over 240 EV. Admittedly, this was before the recent Comey/FBI affair, but Prof. Wang has said on CNN that he stands by his calculations—that he believes are more accurate than Nate Silver’s algorithms–and his contention that this election is actually one of the most statistically stable that he has seen. I hope he is right, although from my in Belize, I learned that termites are nutritious and taste a little like carrots…

Other prediction sites still waver between mid 80s to low 90s in terms of probability that Clinton will win. One interesting site, now at 87% probability of a Clinton win, is the PredictWise site that essentially doesn’t work by polls and statistics, but primarily uses betting markets to calculate possibilities. Starting near 60% for Clinton in Jan. 2016, this site has steadily climbed toward the ~90% range where it stands today.

And Yet

And yet, since this is no ordinary election, any prediction that leaves 35%, 16%, 10%, 5%, or frankly, even <1% possibility that Trump wins, is still enough to unsettle my stomach.

MTV and GOTV

The common wisdom at this point of the election cycle is that the key is now to Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Clinton has been using her strong support by popular President Obama, even more popular First-Lady Michelle Obama, and a slew of pop culture favorites who are (hopefully) going to sway the millennial and young voters to go vote on Tuesday. I did my share, volunteering to man the phone banks at the Democratic Party of Nebraska headquarters, here in Omaha. If the race turns out to be tighter than Sam Wang expects, pundits believe that a potential path to 270 for Trump goes through Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire (as well as a single EV from one district in Maine), possibly leaving him stranded at 269 EV. Nebraska, like Maine, is one of only 2 states that can split its EV and isn’t simply all-or-nothing. While Nebraska is typically considered a “red” or Republican state, this is somewhat of a misnomer. We have 5 EV, and 3 districts, with 1 EV going for each district winner, and 2 EV for the overall state winner. Omaha largely constitutes a district, and in 2008 went for Obama, splitting Nebraska’s EV vote to 4 for republicans and 1 for Democrats. “Redistricting” (also known as Gerrymandering) likely caused our District 2 to support Romney in 2012, but the race is tight for our district now in 2016.

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Nebraska, striped purple in the middle, could potentially contribute a crucial EV

Remarkably, and unlike the previous elections here in Omaha, there are NO ELECTION SIGNS. NONE. Except for congress (Ashford vs. Bacon) and local legislature, which is also on our ballot. This is a sign that both candidates are deeply disliked; but in a typically red state, I would guess that it says more about Trump than Clinton.

Banking On It

Work on the phone banks was mind numbing. Given a laptop that automatically dialed potential democratic voters or independents to ask them if they were going to support Clinton and go to vote Tuesday, I realized how many Americans take our governmental system for granted and are largely unconcerned about what happens. Or uninformed. I was struck by people who honestly told me that they hadn’t yet made up their minds, or hadn’t really thought about who to vote for. To me, it seems as though they must be living on a different planet. But perhaps they look at me and wonder why I have high blood pressure. Perhaps one has to fear for the loss of the democratic process in order to appreciate how important it is.

Latinos to the Rescue?

As the pundits continue to push nervous viewers like me into sleepless suspense, worries crop up about low African American early voting levels (especially compared with Obama’s support in the previous 2 cycles), I feel my blood pressure spike and worries pop up about Florida and North Carolina, two key states that would seal a victory for Clinton—probably if she were to win either, and certainly if she were to win both. At the same time, Latino population growth (especially in Florida and also in another key state, Nevada) and early voting is reportedly at record highs—strongly supporting the democratic ticket. And racist “dog whistles” (although I resent the term, as my dog is an equal opportunity canine who loves all people regardless of skin color) are coming straight out of the Trump campaign in an effort to deny and complain about the Latino voters. Most recently it was a complaint that the polls are being kept open late to allow them to vote. Coupled with attempts to suppress African American voters in states such as North Carolina, and attempts to solicit intimidating “vote watchers” at the polls, it’s clear that the strategy of Trump is to prevent votes from minorities. Whatever happened to the party of Lincoln? Dead on arrival…

My Predictions for Nov. 8 and Afterward

Scientists need to be optimists—especially with the grant situation the way it is. Based on the data, and despite the emotional ups and downs and the changes in the scope of victory predicted from just a few weeks ago, I am inclined to predict that Clinton wins with 312-323 EV. The more the merrier, but any combination above 270 is sufficient.

I am almost embarrassed to note that I almost wanted Trump to win the Republican primary, as I thought that it would tear apart the Republican party for generations to come. That may still happen; or perhaps it has already happened, as can be seen by the number of high-ranking Republicans who have shunned him. It is entirely feasible that should he lose, the party will essentially be split, and an inner party war will occur with a fight over the future of the party between those Trumpists and alt-rightists, and those who are appalled by what the Republican party has become. Conservative columnist George Will of the Washington Post resigned his Republican registration in protest, and wrote a column discussing how the GOP needs chemotherapy. In a short email discourse with him in response to his column, he agreed about my take on the direction of the party and wrote that he had written in a ballot for the junior Republican congressman of Nebraska, Ben Sasse, who has consistently maintained staunch opposition to Trump.

What will Trump do if he loses, as I anticipate? His contention about “the election being rigged” does not bode well. He is neither a good loser nor a good winner (for that matter, he is not good at anything). The most likely scenario is a failure to concede gracefully, possibly coupled with calls of corrupt elections and more people-whistles. To what end? Some say for a TV-media empire. I don’t know—my guess is that like with most things, there is no particular plan except to satisfy his anger, frustration ego and greed, and to cover his incompetence. Just as he couldn’t refrain from tweeting lies about a former Miss Universe in the middle of the night, he will be unable to contain his embarrassment about losing (and to a woman!). What ramifications will that have for the country? I think that will speed the splitting of the Republican party. For now, many low-life hangers-on are awaiting potential political booty in case he wins (Giuliani, Christie). But when he loses, and becomes just another loser in the course of US history (as he has called Romney and McCain so disdainfully)—that’s when everyone will finally abandon ship.

On the other hand, if he does win? With a candidate who threatens to put his opponent in jail, and threatens the free press—this could very well be my final blog. Yes. It’s that serious. Take him literally.

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The Ultimate Conspiracy–the importance of being Donald

Posted on October 9, 2016 by Steve Caplan

Children–and adults–often believe that when they root or hope for a team or for an event to occur, that their wishes can influence the outcome. This irrational behavior probably underlies the fervent cheering for sports teams. And candidates in political processes. Despite my adherence to scientific and rational principles, I admit that I too am guilty of these sins on occasion.

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Statistician/blogger Nate Silver‘s prediction for the US election, if all women abandon Donald Trump!

Months ago, when pundits here in the US were mostly rejecting the notion that Donald Trump might win the Republican primaries and become the Republican nominee in the presidential elections, I was saying “Bring it on!”

Being a supporter of the Democrats since my arrival in the US in 1998, I predicted that the election of such an unimpressive (to say the least!) candidate–someone who is a populist and not even part of the mainstream conservative movement, would likely fracture the party. Little did I know that the drama would play out just a month before the election, although I knew that “unimpressive” could easily turn to “utterly disgusting,” “revolting,” “racist,” “birther,” “misogynist,” “sexual harasser,” “criminal,” “tax evader,” “serial liar,” “vengeful,” “misfit,” “bad judgment,” “poor temperament,” etc. etc.

It did. But only after the release of a particularly disgusting conversation between Trump and another TV celebrity. What is remarkable to me is how long and how many individual incidents registered with the American public until this one finally is causing the Trump campaign to truly crash. And why?

The list of Trump follies has been growing exponentially in recent weeks. We have seen a man who cannot sling two sentences together and speaks with no filter in a stream of consciousness that offends women, African Americans, Latinos, disabled people, and families of veterans who died in defense of the country. A narcissistic being whose thoughts focus first and foremost of himself. A rich, privileged, spoiled-brat, who always had money and power, and abused it at every opportunity. A man whose business principles include stiffing contractors and ordinary people, because he knows that they cannot afford to sue him in court.

Trump has probably paid little or income tax in many years, and apparently hasn’t given a cent to charity in recent years. He has led the racist birther movement, claiming that President Obama wasn’t born in the US, even after the President showed his birth certificate. He has made outrageous and demeaning statements about women, ranting about their bodies and looks, rating and ranking them like prize cattle. He has called woman “disgusting,”  “fat pigs” and “slobs.” He goes on frequent Twitter rampages attacking anyone who dares criticize him, particularly women.

And yet-and yet- despite this very partial list of his egregious behaviors, Trump has, until recently, received support from about 40% of likely voters in the US. How is that possible? And why only now, are Republican leaders beginning to abandon ship?

Statistician, blogger, and head of the “538” website Nate Silver, wrote just now that had Trump been up by 5-6% in the polls, rather than down by that margin (as he is–or was–just before the video tape broke), it’s quite possible that we would not be seeing so many rats jumping a sinking ship.

With regard to the questions I penned above: Why (until now) ~40% support? The US is a polarized society, with roughly 50% of the electorate supporting democrats, and 50% supporting republicans. I won’t get into the history of this, but it’s fair to say that the Republican Party is also polarized from within. The so-called Tea Party, or more conservative branch of the Republican Party may include up to 50% of the Republicans. Anywhere from 30-50%. Hard-core enthusiastic Trump supporters may also comprise up to 50% of the Republican base, and probably include a large segment of the Tea Party group. I believe that with this base of core supporters, nothing that Trump will say or do will change their minds. It is the other half of the Republicans–still supporting Trump (until now), who are beginning to rethink their support. Until now, they have rationalized their decision by maintaining that a vote for the democrats will help elect a democratic supreme court and democratic agenda–which is more important than the integrity of the president. However, the absolute vulgarity–not to mention likely illegal behavior–exhibited on prime time television, has begun to sway the tide.

We have heard so many Trump-invented conspiracy theories: The “birther” conspiracy, the delegitimization of highly popular President Obama by fabricating stories that he was born abroad (even after he produced a birth certificate), that the elections are “rigged” against Trump, that the media has been unfair to Trump (the media has been far too patient). The list goes on and on. So now it is time for the ultimate conspiracy.

I may have been correct about Trump causing a civil war within the Republican party–but what if–what if–WHAT If TRUMP and his ascension to the Republican Party presidential nominee IS MERELY A TRICK PERPETRATED BY THE DEMOCRATS TO GET HILARY CLINTON ELECTED?

Stew on that one, Trump campaign…

 

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Sanexit would make Brexit look like child’s play

Posted on September 3, 2016 by Steve Caplan

For months I have been avoiding a critical civic duty, and have abstained from writing about the political situation in the US. Not from a lack of conviction or interest in the situation. No, I find myself obsessed with the presidential race–so much so, that I check 8 different poll aggregates multiple times a day, to try to reassure myself. But I am not reassured.

Another reason I have not written on the situation to date is that there is a feeling that what more can be said?! We have a candidate, Mr. Trump, who (it has been said, accurately) lies every time his lips move. Mr. Trump tosses around incredible conspiracy theories–such as one that President Obama wasn’t born in the US and therefore is not a legitimate president, or that if he loses in the upcoming race, it is only because Secretary Clinton cheats and rigs the elections. He is utterly ignorant of international affairs, and too lazy to read, learn or pay attention to briefings. Worse yet, he points to his ignorance pridefully, maintaining that his (very debatable) business acumen will suffice. In the same breath, he will tell the public that he knows more about the Islamic State than the generals, and that he has all the solutions. Trust him. He’ll make it right. So fast, your head will spin. Like hell…

So much has been said, by so many, that my words are just a drop in the bucket. Perhaps the ocean. Or perhaps, keeping with the proper metaphor, a drop in the sewage tank. He has been described as having grandiose narcissistic behavior. Hundreds of former high ranking Republican officials, including the most recent Republican presidents and presidential nominees have refused to endorse him and stated that his candidacy is a danger to the United States. Centrist New York Times journalist, Tom Friedman, who has advocated for years that a stronger US needs more cooperation between Democrats and Republicans and a strong center, has simply described Mr. Trump as “a despicable human being.” Again, what more can I add?!

The last straw, the one that broke me and induced me to sit down today and spill my guts, was a minor one, in the scheme of things. A simple Tweet put out by Mr. Trump on Friday morning, but one that showcases who he is and how he behaves:

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First, Mika happens to be the name of my daughter. So while that has nothing to do with the matter at hand, it managed to draw this particular characteristic and highly offensive tweet to my attention.

Is this the type of leadership, the role model for our children and our nation that we want? A man who did not know that the Russians invaded Crimea, and had no idea what Brexit was until he landed in Scotland the day of the referendum, has ample time to watch cable news on television and respond insultingly to every perceived slight? A man who has called women “fat pigs” and when asked which women would be suitable for his future cabinet, could not come up with a single name except for that of his own daughter?

I could go on indefinitely. Every one of his numerous lies, ugly and childish insults, bigoted and false statements, narcissistic ego-filled blustery comments and crazy conspiracy theories would be enough to sink any serious candidate. But that has not happened. Yet.

The exit from sanity, or Sanexit, that a Trump presidency would be akin to pushing us back to the middle ages. This is no longer a race between Democrat and Republican, between trickle-down economics vs breaks for the poor and middle class. It is not a contest between those who believe in the freedom of a woman to have an abortion against those who believe that life begins at conception. It is not a fight between those favoring stricter gun-control laws and those who oppose them. Nor is it a battle between those who want the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to impose stronger regulations on businesses and those who would disband the EPA. This election will go far beyond any such “minor” issues, and go to the heart of American society. This election will determine if the majority of Americans want rational, sane government, or whether their frustration is so great that they would put control of the country in the hands of an egotistic bully whose ignorance knows no bounds, and whose insults don’t either.

Only time will tell, and I will update over the next few months with my humble analysis on the situation. But for now, I need to get back and check the polls…

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Flowers for Algae-non?

Posted on August 13, 2016 by Steve Caplan

I am delighted to report that I am now happily entrenched in my new environment–just 2 miles west of my previous home–here at the western edge of the city of Omaha. “Chez Ginger,” as we have named our new place (after Ginger the dog), came from a desire of an already-suburban midwest family to live in close proximity of walking paths.

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Ginger et moi

Indeed, we were extremely fortunate to find a home backing onto a small lake–or a large pond, rather–that ties in to a system of trails with short links and both west and east to larger lakes with trails.

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Our lake/pond, as seen from our back deck

We have already seen dramatic changes in the biology (flora and fauna) in our new environment, despite the proximity. The open space of the lake is less hospitable to woodpeckers and warblers (which we miss!)–but of course we have traded them for sparrows, cormorants, herons, geese, ducks and wild turkeys.

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Overall, we are having a great time exploring our new area, which borders on woods and farmland. The one issue that has become a bit of an eye-sore is the algal bloom on the lake.

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Large areas of the lake are now covered in this phytoplankton. In reading up on the problem, it turns out that this is fairly common for bodies of fresh water that have minimal water movement; while the lake is a coalescence of two streams that run into a larger low-lying area (that has been dammed), the water flow is slow. There is a fountain that has been installed to stir up movement, provide oxygen and increase the likelihood of healthy fauna (fish, ducks, geese and other water fowl. However, run-off from the neighborhood, apparently from those who apply fertilizers to their gardens/lawns, creates a nutrient-rich atmosphere that, combined with the excessive global-warming-derived heat, leads to this algal bloom. Drastic treatments may endanger the fish and other water wildlife, so it was decided to take a cautious approach with minimal intervention, and hope for a respite in the coming season.

For now, I try to enjoy the view when the algae get blown to the other end of the lake–and I wait (not impatiently) for the seasons to change, with great curiosity to see how the lake will freeze come December.

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Paid overtime for post-docs? Implications!

Posted on July 13, 2016 by Steve Caplan

A new rule issued by the US Department of Labor, scheduled to go into effect on Dec. 1, 2016, is likely to have a major impact on the structure of the biomedical research enterprise in this country. This rule, which was designed to provide help to those at the lower end of the pay scale, has raised the threshold that absolves employers from paying overtime from around $24,000 a year to $47,476 a year.

What does this mean? Currently, it is not required for an employer to pay overtime for any worker earning less than ~$24,000 a year. Accordingly, post-doctoral fellows in the US, whose NIH-recommended salaries begin in the lower $40,000 range do not qualify for overtime. Post-docs who are not at the NIH—particularly those who live and work in less expensive areas of the country, often earn considerably less. The scale could be in the mid-to-high 30K for the midwest or periphery (at least for a starting position). By the current overtime rules, these post-docs still earn well above the $24,000/year threshold, and therefore are also ineligible for overtime pay.

However, with the change in the rules Dec. 1, even post-docs earning $45,000/year will now need to be paid overtime for any work that goes beyond an 8 hour day and 5 day work-week. For many of us who put in 6-7 day weeks, often with 60-80 hours physically in the lab (not to mention reading, writing and thinking science at home) during our post-doctoral stints (and graduate days), a 40 hour work-week just doesn’t seem sufficient to compete in today’s highly competitive world. A post-doc working such hours and intending to obtain a tenure-track position will be at a significant disadvantage if he/she is forbidden from spending more time in the lab or working at home to abide by labor regulations, AND to avoid the employer (i.e., the principal investigator) from having to pay overtime. On top of these serious concerns comes the virtual impossibility of clocking work when dedicated researchers read at home on the computer, pencil ideas on napkins during dinner, and make finger-drawn diagrams in the steam on the shower door.

What is the alternative? Raising salaries so that post-docs meet the $47,476/year threshold, and that no overtime pay is necessary. In fact, this is really the only solution, since overtime pay would be practically impossible to enforce.

The problem? I am all in favor of better wages for post-docs and students. However, not only are grants in this country harder and harder to obtain and maintain—but they have not increased with the cost of living in the 13 years since I have been a principal investigator. The cost of research materials and reagents goes up every year. Serum for cell culture has risen to ~$400 for a 500 ml bottle! It’s hard to purchase an antibody for under $400. Students stipends have gone up to ~$25,000, and post-doctoral fellowship stipends have almost doubled since I was a post-doc (between 1998-2003). The starting post-doc stipend at NIH was about $22,000 in 1998—less than a student earns today.

Don’t get me wrong—this is progress! But the problem is that the funding situation has not progressed at all in parallel. It has worsened. And as a result, I predict that while post-docs will soon earn more when they attain their position, I suspect that many fewer researchers will be able to afford a post-doctoral fellow. This means that most likely, post-doctoral positions will be far more competitive to obtain.

Is this all bad? Truthfully, I don’t know. Many claim that we train too many post-docs for too few faculty and biotech positions. Others think that the post-doctoral position awards a final chance for those who may not have succeeded as well they intended as graduate students to prove themselves as highly capable researchers. But in an era where post-doctoral positions are few and far in between—and with attempts to have students graduate timely within 5 years—there may no longer be second chances, and this may increase the pressure on student trainees to be highly productive.

 

 

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We’re #1 with “Saving One!”

Posted on June 18, 2016 by Steve Caplan

It’s been a crazy 30 days since I submitted my LabLit novel, “Saving One,” to Amazon Kindle’s new publishing program, Kindle Scout. I would like to

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Saving One is #1 in HOT & TRENDING!

thank everyone who took a few seconds to go to my campaign link to nominate Saving One for a book contract. I do not know whether I will be offered one yet, but I DO KNOW that “Saving One” is ranked #1 in the HOT & TRENDING section of Kindle Scout, and has been firmly ensconced in this section for the past 24 h.

The campaign ends in about 11 hours, so for those of you haven’t yet had a chance to read the preview and nominate it, please support LabLit. It only take a few seconds, it’s free, and IF I am offered a contract, you will receive a free ebook to read. What do you have to lose?

Thanks to everyone, and I’ll keep you posted.

 

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Common sense policies to promote reproducibility in science

Posted on June 12, 2016 by Steve Caplan

The ability of scientists to reproduce published experimental data from other laboratories is the foundation for all scientific advance. Indeed, the whole point of publishing is to educate other scientists (and the public in general) and to build a scaffold of information that will allow others, immediately or at some indeterminate time in the future, to build on the published findings and advance them to the next level. It is no wonder that recent concerns with the ability to reproduce published biomedical research have been taken very seriously by the scientific community.

How prevalent is the problem? A recent article by Monya Baker in Nature magazine sheds some light on this question; in effect, it depends on the field of science that one examines. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the more quantitative and exact sciences of physics and chemistry are a lot higher on the reproducibility scale (according to 1576 scientists who were surveyed). This, of course, is unlikely to be due to lower ethical standards in biomedical research, than, say, physics research; most likely it stems from the inherent variability in biological samples. While I will discuss some of the apparent causes for irreproducibility below, it is clear that there is great significance in ensuring the highest degree of reproducibility possible in biomedical science. Time, money, the honor of the biomedical research community, and ultimately, lives are at stake.

While there is some disagreement over the scope of the problem, I think there is likely a strong consensus among scientists that we need to do as much as we can to limit irreproducibility in science. So what should and shouldn’t be done to address the problem?

Many issues and concerns in academia and other walks of life are often superficially treated by adding administrative burden merely for an outward demonstration that “something must be done,” without taking practical steps to solve the problem. Weighing in this way is a serious mistake, which actually exacerbates the problem, because it diminishes the significance that should be attached to the issue. Unfortunately, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has adopted such bureaucratic measures, which include compelling researchers who submit grant proposals to “go through hoops” and provide a series of explanations of how they will ensure that there studies will be maximally reproducible. This, however, is unlikely to lead to any real changes in reproducibility, because researchers will simply write what they are being asked to write, in order to be eligible for funding. Simply writing that “we will verify cell lines, or test antibodies in our studies” will not improve the situation. The litmus test for reproducibility needs to be on ‘what we have done and intend to publish’ rather than on speculating vaguely on what we will do in the future if we obtain funding.

So where can reproducibility be effectively implemented? The key place to enhance reproducibility is in peer review for publication–in ensuring that papers published in scientific journals are well vetted by expert reviewers, and that the experimental design and reagents used are extremely well described. For example, the shunting of the Experimental Design section of papers to a hard-to-find supplement is unacceptable. Experimental Design (also known as Materials and Methods), should ideally be found following the Introduction section in a prominent and visible place within the manuscript. Not only should all the experiments be described in considerable detail (enough detail so that any graduate student is able to carry out the experiment described), but all of the reagents and antibodies used must be listed with their catalog numbers (and where applicable, lot numbers). This is because some reagents, such as polyclonal antibodies, are derived from the serum of animals such as rabbits. When the rabbits eventually die, and new antibodies are generated in new animals, the resulting immune response and quality/specificity of the new antibodies may be quite different than the initial batch. This is a potential problem with considerable complications, and has led to avid discussion about the use of antibodies in scientific research. While there are issues with the use of antibodies, I believe that they are too important to sideline, as suggested by some.

Scientific journals have an inherent responsibility in ensuring that the peer review process includes a careful examination of factors relating to reproducibility. While some of the factors are merely properly cataloging the reagents used, other considerations are whether the authors carried out appropriate controls to determine that the reagents (within reason) are valid or validated. This is a central and key reason why so-called “post-publication review”–or those in favor of letting readers decide on the value and significance of published papers (rather than expert reviewers) is a dangerous idea, at least for biomedical research. Many of the validations and controls that need to be done to ensure reproducibility are specific for the field of research, and any interested reader who is not acquainted with the field directly may not be able to judge such reproducibility criteria.

To make things even more challenging, many today view the internet as “the great equalizer” giving everyone an equal voice. By this scenario, outstanding journalists who write for the New York Times are no better than any individual with a Twitter account or a blog site. By the same token, for some strange reason, there are those in the realm of science who think that any website that calls itself a “scientific journal” has an equal voice to bona-fide scientific journals that carefully select editorial board members and reviewers. Every scientist in the realm of biomedicine today must be familiar with the endless junk-mails that arrive in our inboxes with requests to join editorial board. Just yesterday, another of these popped into my mailbox:

Dear Dr. Caplan, Steve,

Greetings for the day

We are completely aware of your busy schedule; however, we are taking the liberty to remind you again regarding our proposal to you, to be an honourable Editor for Source Journal of Ophthalmology.  Because we didn’t hear any reply from your side. Please accept our sincere apologies if this mail causes any inconvenience.

Awaiting for your positive reply

Regards
Source Journals
4722 E Bell Rd
Suite # 2159
Phoenix, AZ
USA
http://www.sourcejournals.com/
E-mail: [email protected]

We are glad to introduce our new journal Source Journal of Ophthalmology to you. Source Journal of Ophthalmology is a new journal launched by the Source Journals. With an open access publication model of this journal, all interested readers around the world can freely access articles online at http://sourcejournals.com/journal/source-journal-of-ophthalmology-sjop/ without subscription.

We are soliciting scholars to form the editorial board. This is our immense pleasure to invite you as an Editor of our journal. We aware of your international reputation, moreover, your unmatched expertise and experience will help the journal. We would be fortunate if you accept our request. If you are interested, please send your resume along with your areas of interest to [email protected].

Editor benefits:

  • Articles submitted by Editors will be published at free of cost.
  • Based on the quality of the manuscript suitable waiver can be provided for your recommended manuscripts (co-workers, students etc., referred by you).

Editor roles and responsibilities:

  • Processing of articles by assigning reviewers for the manuscript and making decision by considering the reviewer’s comments.
  • Active interaction with Source blog members.
  • Monitoring and suggestions to improve the standards and quality of Source Journals.

Kindly let us know your willingness by sending us the following

  1. Complete CV
  2. Short Biography
  3. Photograph
  4. Research Interest

Looking forward to work with you

Source Journals
4722 E Bell Rd
Suite # 2159
Phoenix, AZ
USA
http://www.sourcejournals.com/
E-mail: [email protected]

Aside from the embarrassing grammar, this type of very common scam-request raises crucial ethical concerns about the publishing process: if I am invited to serve on an editorial board for ophthalmology, when I have never worked in this area and have no specialization in the field, then the editorial board and review process for such a journal renders it useless. And this is but a single example of hundreds of such requests and cases that I receive (and I suspect most researchers receive) on a daily basis. The obvious concern with regard to reproducibility, is that even in highly stringent, peer reviewed journals that carefully select editors and reviewers, issues with reproducibility will crop up–but in journals such as these where there are no standards? It is a wonder there is any reproducibility in anything published in such journals.

So while many researchers typically ignore such requests and avoid such journals like the plague, there must be some critical mass of researchers that publish and read these journals, otherwise there would be no market for them. Along with the above-noted suggestions for dealing with irreproducibility, I believe that it is necessary for scientists to take on these scam journals and expose them for what they are, because they lower the standards and credibility of scientific research. We must take a stand in denouncing and actively dissociating themselves from such damaging enterprises.

However, there is much more that can be done to promote greater reproducibility in biomedical research, because as noted, there are concerns even in the most respected and prestigious journals. Some of the ways may need to be determined specifically for individual fields, as organized by researcher Dr. Daniel Klionsky for the field of autophagy. Society journals, such a the Journal of Biological Chemistry (from the American Society of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology; ASBMB) or Molecular Biology of the Cell (from the American Society of Cell Biology; ASCB) have taken initiative and either have new regulations for peer review, or publish important policy papers regarding reproducibility. Organized societies such as ASCB and ASBMB are crucial for providing the leadership and impetus for researchers to implement best practices, and I look forward to continued discussions about making biomedical science more reproducible.

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The Wandering Jew

Posted on June 5, 2016 by Steve Caplan

IMGP7954New view from our back deck. The path around the lake is precisely 1 mile.

Condemned to eternally wander from place to place? I guess that could describe my life. Born in the US when my father did a residency in Cleveland, lived in Canada in 3 different homes between ages 3-18, a year in Israel on a kibbutz, military service, 10 years as a student in Jerusalem, 4.5 years as a post-doc in Maryland at the National Institutes of Health, and 13 years in Omaha, Nebraska. 2 capitals: Jerusalem and DC.

How many homes? Cleveland: 2, Winnipeg: 3, Israel: 7 + military (I’ll count as “1,” although it was really dozens of places in 3 years), Rockville, MD: 1, Omaha 1 + 1. Total=16. On average, a move every 3 years. Does that qualify for a Wandering Jew, damned to circle the earth until the 2nd coming?

In truth, it isn’t as bad as all that. With a family and career, my last 13 happy years have been all at one residence—until last week. Why move? We loved our house and home. No one left last week without shedding tears. But sometimes change, especially advantageous change, brings freshness, new perspective, and renewal. Once the boxes have been unpacked, or course.

Another reason for the move relates to a career-related issue—an offer and long-drawn out negotiations for a position out of state. The process of seeing a new place, new possibilities, the potential for move and change—even if it didn’t actually occur—helped overcome an inertia barrier. Compared to moving labs and homes, the relocation of just a home—and only 2 miles away, was not as daunting.

Only time will tell whether this Wandering Jew has ultimately found a place to sink roots deep in the ground. But after 13 years in Nebraska, and a move to a house backing onto a lake with beautiful walking paths, it will probably take a lot to drive me away…

Our dining area, until things cool off in the late fall…

IMGP7951IMGP7935

Picture window from my bedroom. Can hear frogs and toads at night.
IMGP7942

Wide open skies of Nebraska.

IMGP7947

The heart of the home; not much artifical light needed.

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